Photo: Ex-Prime Minister Andrej Babis, ANO leader. Credit: Vlada, 2020.
Prague, July 21 (CTK) – The opposition ANO would win the general election with 35.5 percent of the vote and gain 87 mandates in the 200-seat lower house of Czech parliament, while the five parties of the current government coalition would win 37.5 percent together, shows Median’s election model released today.
The election result of the government parties includes also the Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL) whose support in the poll has fallen to a long-term minimum of 2 percent, far below the 5-percent parliamentary threshold, and so the party would not make it into the lower house if running solo.
But even without the Christian Democrats, the current ruling coalition would have 92 seats in the Chamber of Deputies.
The current government is comprised of the Together coalition of the Civic Democrats (ODS), KDU-CSL and TOP 09 along with the Pirates and Mayors and Independents (STAN).
According to the Median poll, six political parties and movements would enter the Chamber of Deputies.
The preferences of the ANO movement of ex-PM Andrej Babis have increased by 1 percentage point compared to the previous poll. On the other hand, support for the runner-up, the Civic Democrats, has slightly declined, and the party would currently win 14 percent of the vote. The Pirates would finish third with 11 percent.
Besides, there is a noticeable rise in the preferences of the SPD, which would be supported by 10 percent of voters, 1.5 percentage points more than in the two previous election models.
The other parties would narrowly reach the threshold for the lower house or end up below it, according to the poll.
STAN would receive 5.5 percent of the vote and TOP 09 5 percent. The Social Democrats (CSSD), now Social Democracy (SOCDEM), who were ousted from the Chamber of Deputies in the previous election, would gain 4 percent of the vote. The extra-parliamentary Greens, Communists, Tricolour and Oath would get some 2.5 percent each.
The statistical margin of error is 0.5 percentage point for small parties and up to 3.5 percentage points for large ones.
Support for the KDU-CSL has dropped to mere 2 percent, its lowest preference in the long run. “However, high volatility is apparent among supporters of the Christian Democrats, as the party’s preferences have long been fluctuating between 2 and 6 percent,” the Median pollsters said.
The distribution of seats in the Chamber of Deputies if the elections were held in June is the same as in the Median model from the previous month. ANO would have 87 seats, the ODS 37 seats, the SPD 21, the Pirates 26, STAN 15 and TOP 09 would have 14 seats. The distribution of mandates does not take possible pre-election coalitions into account.
The pollsters were also interested in the election potential of individual political entities. If the ANO movement received votes from all voters who plan to vote for it and do not rule out going to the elections, it would receive 40 percent of the vote, while the potential of the Civic Democrats is 21 percent and 19.5 percent for the Pirates. This is followed by STAN with the potential to win 16 percent of the vote, the SPD with 15 percent and TOP 09 with 12.5 percent. Social Democracy may potentially reach 10 percent of the vote.
The poll was conducted on a sample of 1,007 respondents aged over 18 between June 12 and 30.
Median election models from this year (results in percent):
| June 2023 | May 2023 | April 2023 | March 2023 | Feb 2023 | |
| ANO | 35.5 | 34.5 | 31 | 34.5 | 32 |
| ODS | 14 | 15 | 15 | 15.5 | 14.5 |
| Pirates | 11 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 8.5 | 11.5 |
| SPD | 10 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 10 | 9.5 |
| STAN | 5.5 | 6 | 7.5 | 8 | 7 |
| TOP 09 | 5 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 5 | 5 |
| SOCDEM (until June 2023 CSSD) | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| KSCM | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4 | 3 | 3.5 |
| Oath | 2.5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2.5 |
| Tricolour | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 1.5 |
| Greens | 2.5 | – | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| KDU-CSL | 2 | 4 | 5.5 | 4 | 3.5 |
hol/dr/rtj
