The opposition ANO movement is polling at 31.3% of the vote ahead of the Czech parliamentary elections on 3-4 October, followed by the governing Spolu coalition of the Civic Democrats (ODS), TOP 09 and the Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL) with 20.2%, according to the latest election model from STEM.
The junior opposition Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) is in third place with 12.5%. The Pirates have risen to a double-digit result, equal with the junior government coalition Mayors and Independents (STAN) on 10%. The Stacilo! alliance and the Motorists would both also enter the Chamber of Deputies, according to the poll commissioned for CNN Prima News.
Compared to the poll published by the broadcaster a week ago, ANO has improved by 0.6 percentage points, while support for Spolu and SPD remained almost unchanged. STAN saw a 0.5 p.p increase, while the Pirates gained 0.8%, reaching 10% of the vote, their highest result this year, STEM said.
Another political grouping to make it into the lower house would be Stacilo!, consisting of the Communist Party, the Social Democrats, and smaller populist parties, with support level at 7.4% week-on-week. The national-conservative Motorists have picked up another half point since last week and would have 6% of the vote.
“However, they are very susceptible to larger swings. The party’s support is strongly tied to events surrounding [its MEP] Filip Turek,” the pollsters said.
If converted into seats, ANO would have 69 MPs, Spolu would have 42, SPD 26, the Pirates and STAN 20 seats each, Stacilo! 13 and the Motorists 10 seats in the 200-seat Chamber of Deputies.
STEM conducted the survey in three waves from 21 August to 9 September, with over 1,500 respondents from across the country.
STEM election model results (in percentage of votes):
| 14 Sep | 7 Sep | 31 Aug | 24 Aug | 17 Aug | 10 Aug | 3 Aug | 27 July | 20 July | 13 July | 6 July | 29 June | |
| ANO | 31.3 | 30.7 | 31.2 | 32.7 | 32.5 | 31.1 | 31.5 | 32.9 | 31.5 | 30.9 | 30.9 | 31.9 |
| Together | 20.2 | 20.3 | 20.9 | 21.3 | 20.1 | 21.3 | 20.8 | 21.2 | 19.4 | 19.9 | 20.5 | 20.8 |
| SPD | 12.5 | 12.9 | 12.8 | 11.0 | 12.1 | 13.2 | 13.8 | 12.5 | 12.8 | 12.4 | 13.9 | 13.0 |
| STAN | 10 | 10.5 | 10.1 | 10.9 | 10.8 | 10.5 | 10.3 | 12.0 | 12.2 | 13.2 | 12.3 | 10.6 |
| Pirates | 10 | 9.2 | 8.9 | 8.5 | 9.2 | 8.1 | 8.3 | 7.6 | 8.1 | 8.0 | 7.9 | 7.8 |
| Enough! | 7.4 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 7.1 | 8.0 | 7.5 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 4.6 |
| Motorists | 6 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 4.8 |
Source: STEM
